Growing oil palm trees (Elaeis guineensis) has increased significantly in different parts of the world. This increase is attributed to the demand of palm oil to produce several fuel products, out of which biodiesel is of special importance. In Ecuador, until year 2012 there were 240 333 ha of soil committed to growing this crop. The location of such area is the North of the coastal region of Ecuador, to the West of the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ). Among the environmental impacts that have been documented from this crop, some are related to air pollution. Oil palm trees present a high isoprene emission factor (172.1 μg g-1 h-1 ), a highly reactive compound that participates in the generation of ozone. According to a preliminary assessment, the isoprene emissions of oil palm trees could increase the ozone levels in Quito. The latest information indicates that there is no presence of such crop within the DMQ. The expectation is that by 2020 the demand of palm tree crops will double compared to the current demand. Hence, there is a real need to revisit the environmental impact assessment of this crop. To this end, we propose a future crop coverage scenario of oil palm trees. The scenario takes into account the current crop land distribution as well as the climatic and morphological conditions of the land. Although with uncertainties, the proposed scenario indicates that there are physical conditions for crop propagation inbound DMQ, to the Northwest. Such fact has the potential to increase ozone emissions close to Quito. The study of this proposed scenario will allow improving the assessment of the impact of palm tree emissions in Quito’s air quality.
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